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In theory, after cashing the ace, you should next lead
a low spot card (or the 8). Consider all the 4-2 splits.
Since both opponents followed low under the ace, the
doubleton can be: xx, 9x, Qx or Kx.
If
the doubleton is xx, you must lose three tricks.
If
it's 9x, you need to play the jack or ten on the second
round.
If
the doubleton is Qx or Kx, you need to lead low (or
the 8).
It's
twice as likely that the doubleton is Qx or Kx than
9x.
In
real life, there's a slight advantage in leading the
8 (rather than a low one) - When RHO has 9x doubleton,
LHO might make the mistake of winning the trick with
K-Q-7 (thinking that you are trying to sneak through
the 8 from J-10-9-8). Archives
of all back issues of all daily columns are
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